Berlin State Election: AfD Over/Under 17%?

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$10.9K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

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Polymarket · UTC

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Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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Berlin State Election: AfD Over/Under 17%?ClosedMarket odds0%

Berlin State Election: AfD Over/Under 17%?

Over0%Polymarket estimate

Under100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Over bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).