Belarus x Ukraine military clash by Sep 30?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$55.7K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCSep 30, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Belarus x Ukraine military clash by Sep 30?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Sep 30, 2024
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Belarus and Ukraine between August 26, 2024, and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Belarus and Ukrainian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Belarus, Ukraine, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.