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Arizona Senate Election Margin of Victory
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$9.1M
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCDec 17, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
7 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Gallego by 3% or moreClosedMarket odds0%
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 3% or more?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Dec 17, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes” if Ruben Gallego wins the popular vote in the 2024 Arizona US Senate election by 3.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Ruben Gallego and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the 2024 Arizona US Senate election. This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Arizona has certified the vote for this race. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.