2024 October hottest on record?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$838K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCOct 31, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

2024 October hottest on record?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Oct 31, 2024
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.2¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior October when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for October 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for October, and if 2024 October is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2024 October is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2024 is provided by NASA by February 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.