
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if @Zvbear (the Twitter/X user), whose real name is Zubear Abdi, is arrested by January 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, however official information from the governments involved in any action against Zvbear and information from @Zvbear or their representatives will also be used.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 9:31:45 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.
A research report should explain the odds, challenge the thesis, and show what could change the answer.
This event is available to explore. Closed markets do not generate new forecasts.