X allowed to operate in China before May?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$863.1K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCApr 30, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

X allowed to operate in China before May?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Apr 30, 2025
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

On January 19, Elon Musk tweeted "the current situation where TikTok is allowed to operate in America, but 𝕏 is not allowed to operate in China is unbalanced" (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1880975630646612254?s=46&t=Hs7p1TPQxYmmgC2MAl-H9A). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the People's Republic of China announces X/Twitter will be unbanned or if X/Twitter becomes available for use by the majority of people in the People's Republic of China by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by the government of the People's Republic of China announcing that X will be unbanned will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if/when X becomes available for use. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People's Republic of China and X/Twitter, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.