
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve in favor of the nation in CONMEBOL (South America) that is eliminated at the earliest stage (places lowest) in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that recorded fewer total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that scored fewer total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that conceded more total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the worst-placed CONMEBOL nation cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve in favor of the nation in CONMEBOL (South America) that is eliminated at the earliest stage (places lowest) in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that recorded fewer total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that scored fewer total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that conceded more total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the worst-placed CONMEBOL nation cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve in favor of the nation in CONMEBOL (South America) that is eliminated at the earliest stage (places lowest) in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that recorded fewer total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that scored fewer total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that conceded more total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the worst-placed CONMEBOL nation cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve in favor of the nation in CONMEBOL (South America) that is eliminated at the earliest stage (places lowest) in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that recorded fewer total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that scored fewer total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that conceded more total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the worst-placed CONMEBOL nation cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve in favor of the nation in CONMEBOL (South America) that is eliminated at the earliest stage (places lowest) in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that recorded fewer total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that scored fewer total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that conceded more total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the worst-placed CONMEBOL nation cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve in favor of the nation in CONMEBOL (South America) that is eliminated at the earliest stage (places lowest) in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that recorded fewer total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that scored fewer total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that conceded more total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the worst-placed CONMEBOL nation cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve in favor of the nation in CONMEBOL (South America) that is eliminated at the earliest stage (places lowest) in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that recorded fewer total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that scored fewer total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that conceded more total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the worst-placed CONMEBOL nation cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 4:40:24 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.