Will US attack Iran by February 15?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.

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24h volume$0

Total volume$237.4K

Liquidity$0

Event end date · UTCFeb 15, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Will US attack Iran by February 15?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $0
Deadline · UTC: Feb 15, 2024
Yes bid / ask: 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

AI research not covered

This market is closed or awaiting resolution.

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between January 22 and February 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military attack" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.