Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?

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Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required

24h volume$16

Total volume$3.1K

Liquidity$12K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2028

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Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?Accepting ordersMarket odds6.5%

Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?

Yes6.5%Polymarket estimate

No93.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $12K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2028
Yes bid / ask: 6.0¢ / 7.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine and the European Union formally sign an accession treaty by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying accession treaty will be a binding agreement that establishes the terms of Ukraine's potential future membership in the European Union, including agreements that provide for partial or limited membership or that contain exemptions, transition periods, or carve-outs on specific EU policies. Ukraine does not need to become a member of the European Union for this market to resolve to "Yes". Ratification of the agreement by EU member states, the Ukrainian parliament, or other legislative bodies is not required for this market to resolve "Yes." Preliminary agreements, association agreements, framework agreements, or membership or potential membership in the European Economic Area alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the European Commission, European Council, or Government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.