Will Trzaskowski or Nawrocki win the diaspora vote?

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$194K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCJun 1, 2025

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds100%

Will Trzaskowski or Nawrocki win the diaspora vote?

Trzaskowski100%Polymarket estimate

Nawrocki0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Jun 1, 2025
Trzaskowski bid / ask: 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Trzaskowski" if Rafał Trzaskowski receives more total votes than Karol Nawrocki from Polish citizens voting abroad (diaspora) in the second round of the 2025 Polish presidential election. It will resolve to "Nawrocki" if Karol Nawrocki receives more total diaspora votes than Rafał Trzaskowski. If votes cast within Wrocław are exactly equal for each candidate, this market will resolve 50-50. Only votes cast outside Poland (i.e., at polling stations abroad and on Polish-flagged ships) will count for the purposes of this market. The resolution will be based on the official results published by Poland’s National Electoral Commission (Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza, PKW), specifically the results for voters abroad. If the diaspora results are not published or are contested, this market will remain open until the final official totals from abroad are confirmed by a ruling from the Supreme Court and published in the Journal of Laws (Dziennik Ustaw). Official results can be found at: https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent2025/en/wynik/pow/149900