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Will Trump win the 2024 Iowa Caucus?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volume$0
Total volume$94.3K
Liquidity$0
Event end date · UTCFeb 5, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds100%
Will Trump win the 2024 Iowa Caucus?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $0
- Deadline · UTC
- Feb 5, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former president Donald J. Trump wins the greatest share of apportioned delegates in the 2024 Republican Iowa caucuses. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Trump ties for the greatest share of apportioned delegates, the popular vote will be used as a tiebreaker. Namely, if Trump ties for the greatest share of apportioned delegates and has the higher final popular vote number, the market resolves to "Yes", and if Trump ties for the greatest share of apportioned delegates and doesn't have the higher final popular vote number, the market resolves to "No". If no 2024 Republican Iowa caucuses take place, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.