Will Trump win Iowa by 12+ points?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$292.9K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCNov 5, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds100%

Will Trump win Iowa by 12+ points?

Yes100%Polymarket estimate

No0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Nov 5, 2024
Yes bid / ask: 99.2¢ / 99.9¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes” if Donald Trump wins the popular vote in Iowa in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 12.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. This market will resolve based off the official vote count once this state has certified the vote. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.