Will Trump say a slur during the debate?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$164.6K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCSep 10, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Will Trump say a slur during the debate?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Sep 10, 2024
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump uses a slur targeting race, ethnicity, religion, gender, sexuality, or disabilities at least once during the first presidential debate between himself and Kamala Harris during the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" Trump must clearly be using the term in reference to the derogatory meaning of a word in question (e.g. If Trump says "I ate too many crackers" this would not qualify). If no debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump takes place before election day, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.