Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$1.4M

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCAug 31, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds100%

Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?

Yes100%Polymarket estimate

No0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Aug 31, 2025
Yes bid / ask: 99.6¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

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This market is closed or awaiting resolution.

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. weighted average tariff, as defined and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, reaches 5% or greater for either Q1 or Q2 of 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve once the dataset has been updated to reflect data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate GDP report for Q2, currently scheduled to be released on July 30, 2025. If no Advance Estimate GDP report for Q2 2025 is released by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, specifically the the average tariff paid as defined here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. Revisions to the data made after the resolution will not be considered.