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Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$23.4K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCJun 30, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds0%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Jun 30, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 2.5¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.