Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

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Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$3.1K

Liquidity$11.2K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?Accepting ordersMarket odds6%

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

Yes6%Polymarket estimate

No94%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $11.2K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 5.0¢ / 7.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.