Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$4.2K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCSep 4, 2026

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?ClosedMarket odds0%

Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Sep 4, 2026
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times. The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution. If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".