Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

Foretrace AI research

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Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$9.5K

Liquidity$973.6

Event end date · UTCApr 1, 2027

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?Accepting ordersMarket odds96.7%

Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

Yes96.7%Polymarket estimate

No3.4%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $973.6
Deadline · UTC: Apr 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 95.8¢ / 97.5¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF). This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data. The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.