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Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$47.6K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCOct 2, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
7 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
California (CAISO)ClosedMarket odds0%
Will there be a power grid emergency in California before October 1?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 2, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 1.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market resolves "Yes" if the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which operates the electric grid serving most of California, declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM PT on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official CAISO communication — its newsroom (https://www.caiso.com/about/news), market notices, or real-time system-condition (Today's Outlook) postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".