Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Foretrace AI research

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Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.

Choose a market to analyze 1 eligible question · Evidence required

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$160.3K

Liquidity$14.7K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Accepting ordersMarket odds3.1%

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Yes3.1%Polymarket estimate

No97%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $14.7K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 2.3¢ / 3.8¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.