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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
24h volume$371.2K
Total volume$71.3M
Liquidity$1M
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Accepting orders16.5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes16.5%
No83.5%
- Liquidity
- $1M
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 16.0¢ / 17.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Within research coverage.
Fresh successful report: 1 credit. Valid shared report: free.
Retrieved 10/3/2026, 1:50:06 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.