Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

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Choose a market to analyze 1 eligible question · Evidence required

24h volume$60.7

Total volume$1.4M

Liquidity$85.5K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Accepting ordersMarket odds2.6%

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

Yes2.6%Polymarket estimate

No97.4%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $85.5K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 2.3¢ / 2.9¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Retrieved 10/3/2026, 5:59:14 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.