
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the first ceasefire between Hamas and Israel pursuant to a hostage/prisoner exchange deal, which began on November 24, 2023, 7 AM IST (Israeli Standard Time), lasts at least 8 full days (192 consecutive hours). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible information and reporting.
Retrieved 10/3/2026, 9:37:36 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.
A research report should explain the odds, challenge the thesis, and show what could change the answer.
This event is available to explore. Closed markets do not generate new forecasts.