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Will the Firefly Lander Successfully Land on the Moon on Sunday?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$51K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCMar 2, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds100%
Will the Firefly Lander Successfully Land on the Moon on Sunday?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Mar 2, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Firefly Aerospace Blue Ghost lunar lander successfully lands on the surface of the Moon by March 2, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A successful landing is defined as Blue Ghost making contact with the Moon without crashing, being destroyed upon impact, or tipping over. The lander must remain upright and stable upon touchdown. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Firefly Aerospace or NASA confirming whether Blue Ghost successfully landed. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.