Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$604.5K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCNov 18, 2024

Price history

Market probability

Loading price history…

Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Nov 18, 2024
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during it's landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the sixth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the sixth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the sixth launch, and this market will stay open until the sixth launch has occurred. If the sixth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.