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Will the 2025 Guinea referendum pass?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$8.2K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCSep 21, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds100%
Will the 2025 Guinea referendum pass?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Sep 21, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- 95.6¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
Guinea has scheduled a referendum to adopt a new constitution and begin a return to civilian rule for September 21, 2025. You can read more about that here: https://www.africanews.com/2025/07/03/guinea-presents-draft-for-new-constitution-referendum-set-for-september/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referendum passes with the requisite voter turnout threshold met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the referendum is permanently canceled or delayed beyond January 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Guinea, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.