Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

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Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required

24h volume$14.3

Total volume$8.7K

Liquidity$2.5K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

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Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?Accepting ordersMarket odds12.5%

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

Yes12.5%Polymarket estimate

No87.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $2.5K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 11.0¢ / 14.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.