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Will Russia invade another country by...?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 2 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$1.7K
Total volume$588.9K
Liquidity$83.8K
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2028
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
2 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
December 31, 2027Accepting ordersMarket odds13.5%
Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?
Yes13.5%Polymarket estimate
No86.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $26.8K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2028
- Yes bid / ask
- 13.0¢ / 14.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.