Will Russia control Chasiv Yar on May 9?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$25.6K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCMay 9, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds0%

Will Russia control Chasiv Yar on May 9?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: May 9, 2024
Yes bid / ask: 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

Russian forces have begun attacking the strategic city of Chasiv Yar, seeking to capture the eastern Ukrainian city by Russia's national Victory Day on May 9, 2024. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia controls the Chasiv Yar railroad station located on Pryvokazlna Vulytsia on May 9, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered under Russian control if any part of the train station is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the area is not shaded red on May 9, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Chasiv+Yar+Train+Station.png Chasiv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Chasiv+Yar+Ukraine+Location.png The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered permanently unavailable, information from Liveuamap (https://liveuamap.com/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and Liveuamap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.