Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by August 31?

Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by August 31?

Liquidity

Unavailable

Deadline · UTC

Aug 31, 2025

Yes bid / ask

— / 0.1¢

Trading fees

Not flagged by provider

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between E50 and вул. Яблунева located in Novopavlivka by August 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location in Novopavlivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/novopavlivka+intersection+zoom.png Novopavlivka location in region: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/novopavlivka+zoom.jpeg Novopavlivka location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/novopavlivka.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/G9dEeKpAi1xB6cMz5 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.