Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$2.3M

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCNov 30, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Nov 30, 2024
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.5¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia controls the intersection of Zaporizkyi prospekt (H-15) and Minska vulytsia in Kurakhove Ukraine by November 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if the intersection where the roads meet is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kurakhove+intersection.png Kurakhove Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kurakhove+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5RiWB9CBKnjC6hzt5 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.