Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?

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Choose a market to analyze 1 eligible question · Evidence required

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$22.9K

Liquidity$10.5K

Event end date · UTCNov 4, 2026

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Accepting ordersMarket odds1.4%

Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?

Yes1.4%Polymarket estimate

No98.7%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $10.5K
Deadline · UTC: Nov 4, 2026
Yes bid / ask: 0.8¢ / 1.9¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.