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Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$115.1K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCJan 12, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds0%
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 12, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Palisades fire in California spreads to Malibu by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” East Malibu will not count as Malibu for the purposes of this market. Only Malibu's official boundary west of the Malibu creek/lagoon will count (see:https://maps.app.goo.gl/H3sMfYLwPQTbsCvd6) The Primary resolution source is official updates from the fire map at https://www.fire.ca.gov/. However, a consensus of credible reporting or video/photo evidence released before the resolution date confirming the fire has spread to Malibu may also be used.