Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30? | Foretrace

World & cultureOpen event

Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$261.3

Liquidity$172.2

Event end date · UTCDec 1, 2026

Price history

Market probability

Loading price history…

Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?Accepting ordersMarket odds8%

Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?

Yes8%Polymarket estimate

No92%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $172.2
Deadline · UTC: Dec 1, 2026
Yes bid / ask: 6.0¢ / 10.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

Get the Foretrace AI forecast

See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.

Fresh successful report: 1 credit. Valid shared report: free.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) reclassifies Indonesia as a Frontier Market at any point by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An official MSCI announcement of reclassification will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, even if such reclassification does not go into effect by the date listed above. Announcements that MSCI is considering or exploring reclassification will not be sufficient to resolve the market. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.