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Will Joe Biden's 538 approval rating be 38.0% or higher on December 12?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volume$0
Total volume$3.3K
Liquidity$0
Event end date · UTCDec 13, 2023
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds100%
Will Joe Biden's 538 approval rating be 38.0% or higher on December 12?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $0
- Deadline · UTC
- Dec 13, 2023
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden's approval rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight is greater than or equal to 38.0% for the day of December 12, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for December 12 as soon as a datapoint for December 13 becomes available. This market may not resolve until the December 13 datapoint is available. If no datapoint for December 12 is available by December 13, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous approval rating to December 12. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.