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Will Israel invade Lebanon by January 20?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.
View a sample AI report This event is outside current AI coverage.
24h volume$0
Total volume$61.8K
Liquidity$0
Event end date · UTCJan 20, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds0%
Will Israel invade Lebanon by January 20?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $0
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 20, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
AI research not covered
This market is closed or awaiting resolution.
Check AI research coverageResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon by January 20, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Retrieved 10/3/2026, 5:01:01 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.