Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Foretrace AI research

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Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.

Choose a market to analyze 1 eligible question · Evidence required

24h volume$566.8

Total volume$601K

Liquidity$43.4K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Accepting ordersMarket odds11.7%

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Yes11.7%Polymarket estimate

No88.3%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $43.2K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 11.6¢ / 11.8¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Retrieved 10/3/2026, 4:54:53 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.