Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before July?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$227.9K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCJun 30, 2025

Price history

Market probability

Loading price history…

Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before July?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Jun 30, 2025
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike against an oil or gas facility, inclusive of all oil rigs, refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on the soil or within the maritime territory of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE), between June 12 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes and aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Iranian missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory based on a consensus of credible reporting will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not qualify. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.