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Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.
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24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$204.5K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCApr 30, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds0%
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Apr 30, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
AI research not covered
This market is closed or awaiting resolution.
Check AI research coverageResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects. Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula. Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.