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Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed or awaiting resolution.
Check AI research coverageThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially declares war on Israel by December 31, 2023 11:59 PM ET. Declarations of war must be clear, and explicit. The market will resolve to "No" if no such official declaration of war is made by the specified date. Note that Israel or Hamas declaring war is not considered for this market. Further note if e.g. Hezbollah declared war, it will not satisfy a “Yes” resolution - only Iran itself declaring war will suffice.
Retrieved 10/3/2026, 7:06:35 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.
A research report should explain the odds, challenge the thesis, and show what could change the answer.
This event is available to explore. Research coverage is assessed separately.