Will Iran legalize gay marriage?

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Choose a market to analyze 1 eligible question · Evidence required

24h volume$52.6

Total volume$79.5K

Liquidity$82.6K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

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Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Accepting ordersMarket odds1.9%

Will Iran legalize gay marriage?

Yes1.9%Polymarket estimate

No98.2%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $82.6K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 1.8¢ / 1.9¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law. Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline. The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify. Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.