Will Hamas release 20+ hostages in a single day by Nov 30?

Foretrace AI research

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24h volume$0

Total volume$59.6K

Liquidity$0

Event end date · UTCNov 30, 2023

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds100%

Will Hamas release 20+ hostages in a single day by Nov 30?

Yes100%Polymarket estimate

No0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $0
Deadline · UTC: Nov 30, 2023
Yes bid / ask: 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas releases 20 or more hostages in any 24-hour period between November 15 and November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a negotiated release of hostages will trigger a "Yes" resolution. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon the release of 20+ hostages in a 24 hour period. If Hamas releases hostages on the last day within this market's range, the 24 hour period will commence starting with the release of the first hostage (e.g. if a first hostage is released on Nov 30, 2 PM ET, the 24h period will be from Nov 30, 2 PM ET to Dec 1, 2 PM ET). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Hamas, Israel, the United States, and/or the relevant nations to whom any potential released hostages belong, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.