Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?

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24h volume$0

Total volume$144.2K

Liquidity$0

Event end date · UTCDec 31, 2023

Price history

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds50%

Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?

Yes50%Polymarket estimate

No50%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $25.8
Deadline · UTC: Dec 31, 2023
Yes bid / ask: 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4 has 500 billion or more parameters when released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market covers how many parameters GPT-4 has at the time of its initial release, and will resolve based on that number regardless of whether that figure is later increased or decreased. If GPT-4 is not released by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. GPT-4 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-4, or is a successor to GPT-3 in the way that GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2; it cannot be branded as GPT3.5 or a version of GPT-3. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, however a consensus of credible reporting (including corroborating statements from employees of OpenAI where available) may also be used.