Will Google have the best LLM before 2024?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volume$0

Total volume$3.9K

Liquidity$0

Event end date · UTCDec 31, 2023

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Will Google have the best LLM before 2024?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $198.5
Deadline · UTC: Dec 31, 2023
Yes bid / ask: 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

If Google deploys an LLM that reaches the top of the Elo leaderboard on https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only models accessible to the public (e.g. developers or public sign-ups) will count for this market. If Google deploys a new model in 2023 that could reach the top of the leaderboard but is not yet ranked at year's end due to time required for evaluation, this market's resolution may be delayed until February 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. If at this point the resolution source still does not list the new model's ELO, the underlying script(s) will be used to determine whether google's model tops the leaderboard. Note that the model must be released by the resolution date to be considered (if they release a new version of the model after the resolution date, it will not be considered for this market). This market will resolve based on the leaderboard on Elo (https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable by the resolution date, the underlying script to calculate google's model ELO on Chatbot Arena will be used directly.