Will AfD make it into Thuringia or Saxony government?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$367.2K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCDec 31, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Will AfD make it into Thuringia or Saxony government?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Dec 31, 2024
Yes bid / ask: 0.2¢ / 0.4¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

Elections for the parliaments of two German states, Thuringia and Saxony, are scheduled for September 1, 2024. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party officially joins the state government of either Thuringia or Saxony as part of a governing coalition as a result of the German elections held on September 1, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If both of these elections do not occur by December 31, 2024 ET, or if no new government is formed by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the AfD association for each relevant state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.