Loading your workspace…
All markets
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by...?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$4.3M
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCJun 30, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
4 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
June 30ClosedMarket odds0%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Jun 30, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk publicly announces the formation of a new political party by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement must be explicit and clearly state that the new political party is being launched or formed. Statements merely expressing support for the idea of a new party, or alignment with specific political ideologies or other statements which do not constitute the official launch of a new political party will not qualify. The resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.