Will Elon blame a foreign actor for Twitter crash?

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$33K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCAug 16, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds0%

Will Elon blame a foreign actor for Twitter crash?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Aug 16, 2024
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.4¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

On August 12, 2024, Elon Musk claimed that a "massive" Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attack disrupted the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) during a scheduled interview with Donald Trump. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk or X publicly blames a foreign actor or state for causing the disruption to the Trump interview by 11:59 PM ET on August 16, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The accusation must be explicitly directed at a specific foreign entity or country. Accusations which are hedged are expressed with ambiguity (e.g. "We believe it was Iran") will qualify. However, purely speculative statements (e.g., "It could have been Iran") will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from X (formerly Twitter) or public statements from Elon Musk.