Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

Foretrace AI research

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24h volume$161.7

Total volume$24.6K

Liquidity$28.6K

Event end date · UTCNov 4, 2026

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Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Accepting ordersMarket odds55%

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

Yes55%Polymarket estimate

No45%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $28.6K
Deadline · UTC: Nov 4, 2026
Yes bid / ask: 54.0¢ / 56.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.