
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksX announced a $1 Million grand prize for its One Million Dollar Article contest (see: https://x.com/XCreators/status/2012306731867717852). The prize will go to the top article for the period of January 16 - January 28, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Dan Koe (@thedankoe) is officially confirmed to have won this $1 Million prize by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements from Dan Koe that he has won the prize will not alone be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Dan Koe winning any additional or sub-prize other than the announced $1 million dollar prize will not count. If it is confirmed that another X user is the winner of this prize, this market will resolve to “No”. If no winner is officially confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from official X sources, including from @Xcreators, other X team accounts, or Elon Musk; however, a consensus of credible information on the winner of this prize may also be used. Note: The terms of this prize may be seen at https://legal.x.com/en/articles-promotion-terms
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 7:47:19 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.