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Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
24h volume$53.7K
Total volume$3.4M
Liquidity$270.1K
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2028
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Accepting orders10.5%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Yes10.5%
No89.5%
- Liquidity
- $270.8K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2028
- Yes bid / ask
- 10.0¢ / 11.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Within research coverage.
Fresh successful report: 1 credit. Valid shared report: free.
Retrieved 10/3/2026, 4:04:56 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.